Executive Summary
BTC crossed $80,000 for the first time since January — touched $83K intraweek, weekly close $82,199 (+4.63% WoW, +35% from the February $60,000 low). The 100-week EMA acted as overhead resistance.
ETF flow regime just flipped. Glassnode (May 14): 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow at -$88M/day — the largest institutional outflow since mid-February. Institutions selling into strength near $80K.
On-chain: Rally Without Conviction. Glassnode WoC W19 flags weak capital inflows vs. prior bull phases; overhead supply ~$86K caps conviction.
CLARITY Act. Senate Banking Committee markup Thursday May 14. Polymarket odds on 2026 passage: 73% (up from 46%). ABA pushing back hard.
Macro. Goldman pushed next Fed cuts to Dec '26 + Mar '27. CME FedWatch 93.4% hold June 17. Powell steps down Friday May 15.
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