Get the full regime breakdown — every price level, the complete bull/base/bear framework, and the on-chain triggers we’re watching next — in this week’s issue below.
Executive Summary
BTC closed the week at $65,738 — down 20% from May’s highs — and the bear-market regime that emerged in mid-May has now fully re-asserted itself. On-chain, derivatives, and macro signals all flipped the same direction at once.
What moved this week
STH Cost Basis flipped below the True Market Mean — the first time since January 2022, historically a reliable marker of a regime shift toward sustained downside.
ETF outflows hit $4.21B over three weeks — the largest redemption streak of 2026, anchored by IBIT’s $1.26B off-exchange block trade.
Michael Saylor sold 32 BTC — his first reduction since 2020 — wiping out roughly $200B in MSTR market cap and reigniting the “MSTR math test” debate.
Where this leaves BTC
Composite sentiment has dropped to 35/100 (Bearish/Risk-Off), down sharply from 58 a week ago. Our scenario framework now points to materially different odds across bull, base, and bear paths — with a full set of on-chain price levels to watch on the way down, and the level that would flip the regime back.
